Andy Sagu – Blog

TORONTO, October 5, 2011 — Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 7,658 transactions through the TorontoMLS® system in September – a 25 per cent increase over September 2010. Sales during the first three quarters of 2011 amounted to 70,588, representing a 2.6 per cent increase compared to the first nine months of 2010.

“We have experienced strong growth in sales so far this year, with a much more active summer compared to 2010. However, while sales have been strong, we have continued to experience a shortage of listings, resulting in more competition between home buyers,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. “Over the past few months, the listing situation has started to improve, so we expect home buyers will have more homes to choose from in the months ahead.”

With annual growth in sales (+25 per cent) outstripping annual growth in new listings (+15 per cent) in September, market conditions became tighter and the average selling price continued to grow by close to 10 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

“Strong price growth through the first nine months of the year was mitigated to a great degree by low interest rates and rising incomes,” said the Toronto Real Estate Board’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis Jason Mercer. “As buyers continue to take advantage of the affordable home ownership options in the GTA, we remain on pace for the second best year for sales under the current TREB market area.”

Courtesy: Toronto Real Estate Board

 Toronto, August 4, 2011 – Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 7,922 transactions through the TorontoMLS® system in July 2011, representing a 23 per cent increase over July 2010. Total sales through the first seven months of this year amounted to 55,863 – down by 1.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2010. After adjusting for seasonal fluctuations, the July figure continued to point to an annual sales result close to 90,000 – in line with results from the previous six months.

“Strong home sales continued in July, with a substantial rebound over last summer’s slow-down brought about by higher mortgage rates, new lending guidelines and misconceptions about the HST. The greatest rebound was seen in the condominium apartment segment in the City of Toronto,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. “If the current pace of sales holds up, we could see the second best year on record under the current TREB market area.”

The average selling price in July was $459,122 – up by almost ten per cent compared to the July 2010 average of $418,675.

“Tight market conditions have boosted the annual rate of price growth this year. However, the listings situation is starting to improve. A better supplied market later this year and into 2012 would lead to a more sustainable rate of price growth,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

Courtesy: Toronto Real Estate Board

July 6, 2011 — Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 10,230 home sales through the TorontoMLS® system in June 2011 – up 21 per cent compared to June 2010. This number represented the third best June result on record behind 2007 and 2009. The number of transactions during the first six months of 2011 amounted to 48,189 – down by 4.5 per cent compared to the first half of 2010.

“The strong June result capped off an interesting first half of 2011,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. “The pace of sales was a bit sluggish at the beginning of the year, but rebounded in May and June. Because of the positive affordability picture, home buyers remained confident in their ability to purchase and pay for a home over the long term.”

The average price for June transactions was $476,371 – a 9.5 per cent increase over June 2010. Through the first six months of the year, the average selling price was $467,169 – almost an eight per cent increase compared to the same period in 2010.

“While sales have been strong, we would be on track for a record number of transactions in 2011 if not for the decline in listings so far this year,” said Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “Tight supply meant more competition between home buyers and an accelerating annual rate of price growth in the second quarter.”

“Home owners will likely react to the stronger price growth by listing their homes in greater numbers. A better supplied market would result in more moderate price increases,” continued Mercer.

Median Price
In June, the median price was $405,000, from the $367,750 recorded during June of 2010.

Article courtesy of Toronto Real Estate Board 12 July 2011

Record low interest rates and a lack of houses on the market have rekindled demand for Canadian real estate, helping to pull the industry out of its sales slump and setting the stage for the most balanced spring market in years.
Would-be buyers also faced a barrage of warnings from organizations such as the Bank of Canada, the OECD and International Monetary Fund, all of which have cautioned that as interest rates rise, many Canadians might not be able to make their mortgage payments.

But mortgage rates have actually dropped in the past three months and now sit at all-time lows. A survey by the Canadian Association of Mortgage Professionals released last week showed that Canadians are confident they could shoulder higher mortgage payments without too much difficulty, with 84 per cent saying a $300 monthly increase was no problem.

“There are many reasons to now be optimistic,” said TD Bank senior economist Pascal Gauthier, who called for prices to fall 10 per cent from peak to trough but now expects to issue a more upbeat forecast later this week. “I think there are now limits to both the upside and the downside – things may have firmed up quicker than we expected.”

With the number of houses listed for sale sharply lower than in July, prices are expected to stay firm as buyers compete the few homes available. The months of inventory – the amount of time it would take to sell everything that is for sale, at the current rate of sales – sat at 6.2 months in October, down a full month compared with the July figure.

That doesn’t mean prices are likely to catch fire again in the spring, when activity traditionally accelerates, but it should help keep prices from dropping as buyers and sellers hit the market in equal numbers.

“Affordability drives sales and record low mortgage rates are driving affordability,” said Phil Soper, the chief executive officer of Brookfield Real Estate Services. “I think next year should look a lot like the recent market – with relatively flat prices and fewer overall transactions.”
Article in Globe and Mail 15 November 2010.

In a sign of stabilization after two years of wild fluctuations, CREA said October sales were halfway between the lows of December, 2008, and the record high of December, 2009.

Economists said October’s data likely means the market bottomed out in July; while prices won’t rocket to previous highs any time soon, it’s unlikely they have much farther to fall.

“It seems to me the Canadian housing market has been either feast or famine,” said BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Douglas Porter. “But now buyers are facing low rates on one hand, and daily volleys about how bad the market is on the other. That should keep things from getting overly hot, and gives me reason to believe we could have a balanced market in the year ahead.”

After slowing in the recession of 2008, sales activity reached a fevered peak in December, 2009, as buyers rushed back into the market.

The Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday that although prices were flat in October and sales slid more than 20 per cent compared with a year earlier, the market posted its third straight month of increased sales.

Resale housing market conditions remained moderate in the Greater Toronto Area last month. With 6,310 homes changing hands in September, activity declined 23 per cent from the same month a year ago when there 8,196 sales.

In the 905 region, there were 3,811 transactions while 2,499 sales took place in the 416 area. Compared to the 4,855 transactions that took place in the 905 region in September 2009, activity decreased by nearly 22 per cent. In the 416 area, sales decreased 25 per cent from a year ago when 3,341 properties changed hands.

From a broader year-to-date perspective though, the market has performed very well. Sales in the first nine months of this year reached 69,069, an increase of 4 per cent from the same period a year ago. It’s also important to note that while many homebuyers undertook transactions in the first half of this year to avoid the impending harmonized sales tax, the HST does not, in fact, apply to the purchase price of resale homes. It is only applicable to newly constructed homes and professional services associated with real estate transactions.

September’s home values, meanwhile, continued to show strength. The average price of a home in the GTA last month was $427,329, a nearly 5 per cent increase over the September 2009 average of $406,877. Price growth was marginally stronger in the 416 area than in the 905 region. In the 416, the average price of $465,890 rose 6 per cent from $437,182 a year ago. In the 905 region, the average price of $402,044 grew nearly 4 per cent from September 2009’s average price of $386,022.

Active listings increased nearly 4 per cent last month with 20,334 homes available for sale throughout the GTA, compared to 19,563 a month earlier. This increased offering did not negatively impact the number of days that homes are currently on the market before being sold, as the August average of 36 days decreased to 33 days in September.

It is important to recognize that while current conditions are not on par with the first half of the year’s record-setting pace, factors that are essential to a healthy housing market remain in place.

Today’s low interest rates, for example, mean that only a moderate share of the average household income must be directed toward mortgage payments, contributing to the affordability of resale homes in the GTA. As well, more than nine out of 10 people in our province continue to be employed. These aspects, combined with the fact that demand for housing will continue to be fueled by new immigrants and the children of the Baby Boom generation, show that the outlook for our housing market remains favourable.

Published on 8 October, 2010 Toronto Star by Bill Johnston